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“Never extrapolate single data points” as my great friend and former colleague, Richard Pitt, used to tell me

Anyone with more than 5 minutes knowledge of statistics knows he’s right

Yet people do it all the time

The news channels all want to interview the strategist who “got it right last time” or sometimes worse, are “getting it right now”

In every interview I’ve seen with “Gloom Boom and Doom” editor, Marc Faber, he was introduced as, “the person who correctly called the 1987 crash”

As if that guarantees he’s going to correctly every other crash…

Surely what Howard Marks calls, “first level thinking”

Nouriel Roubini called the 2008 US housing crash

But you didn’t want to “extrapolate that single data point” into every other macro call of his, because during COVID he didn’t predict a V, U or W-shaped recovery,

he talked of an L-shaped recovery – ie the economy collapsed and didn’t recover

Look how well that turned out!

So assuming the guy who “got it right” last time is going to “get it right” now is guilty of

“extrapolating a single data point”

If anything, those strategists are probably suffering from “confidence bias” and even MORE confident in their views

Bitcoin was $125000 in October 2025

But you didn’t want to listen to Bitcoin fanboy, Michael Saylor projection of $150,000 by the end of 2025 and buy?

It was a great time to sell!

So who do we listen to then?

Well, I find it useful paying attention to the opposing views – the guys who “got it wrong” last time

because maybe they’re now closer to the time when they “get it right” than ever before

Isn’t that “second-level thinking”?

When the Bitcoin bulls were throwing bullish, thumb-suck projections around in 2025, you’d have done better watching Charlie Munger interviews on the subject..

And sold

And did you know that Roubini first called the housing crash in the summer of 2006?

Imagine dismissing his views in 2007 because he “got it wrong” last year …

His rationale was dead right, even though his timing was out

Last week CNBC interviewed Jeremy Grantham

Now followers will know I’m a huge Grantham “fanboy”

Because he has 60 years of market experience and built a firm with AUM of $85bn

And you don’t get to survive that long in markets, nor build a substantial business without getting more calls right than wrong

So do I care that he’s been concerned about the USA being over-valued since 2021 & favoured ex-USA markets?

Not at all

He might be closer to being right on the downside risk facing US equities than ever before!

Besides, ex-USA markets have done almost as well, with arguably “less risk”

So investors heeding his call certainly haven’t been “done a grave disservice” as CNBC Joe Kernen anchorman aggressively stated!

JG’s recent The Diary Of A CEO interview and the CNBC clip are in the comments

#valueinvesting
#investing
#numbersnotnarrative

Disclosure

This is not advice, do your own work

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