Author: Sean Peche

Here’s a secret that academics don’t talk about


A company’s future ROE / ROA / ROIC is unlikely to be the same as history,especially if management allocates capital badly Meaning I’m no fan of all that Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) stuff But before we tackle an example, a quick recap The SGR = how much the company retains (1- dividend payout ratio) x … Read on

Disney hit the lowest price in a year – down 59% since March ’21


Disney hit the lowest price in a year – down 59% since March ’21 How? Isn’t it a “great business” with “excellent management”? I thought “great businesses” meant “great share prices” Nope But their parks & ships must be pumping with post-COVID vacations,Disney+ has over 100m subs and they own the best sports content in … Read on

Wow, 56bn!


Is that Nvidia’s net income? No, that was $6.1bn Is that their revenue? No, that was $13.5bn It’s not the market cap because I know that’s a mighty $1.2 trillion So, what’s $56bn? The value of Nvidia’s shares that traded yesterday – equal to the market cap of Heineken Wow, people really wanted those shares! … Read on

Imagine it’s 1965 and you want to back this Investor you’ve just uncovered


So you hire a consultant for their “expert” view They conclude his investment philosophy is sound because he buys undervalued companies, his track record is excellent and he’s a person of integrity But you shouldn’t invest …. because “What if something happens to Warren?” Meaning your $1000 didn’t compound to $18m today… Or it’s 2010 … Read on

“Inflation is beaten, and the coming recession means the Central Banks will lower rates, which means you should switch from Value back to Growth”

“What do you think of that common thinking?” asked a client yesterday “Who knows, but I’m not sure inflation is beaten”, is how I began, Yes, June’s average oil price fell 22% to $71 from $91 last year so that helped the monthly number and it’s a similar story for food products like maize and … Read on

I’m worried


What are you worried about? I’m worried about the “markets” being expensive, and worried about a recession, and worried about inflation, and worried about what the Fed might do next That’s a lot of worries, so let’s look at each one If you own the “market” via large US index ETFs or a fund that … Read on

I see May was a tough month for you Value guys, you must be suffering a bad dose of “FOMO” with all these #ai -related moves


Not at all – I suffer from “FOMOL” not #FOMO What’s “FOMOL”, never heard of it? “Fear Of Making Oversized Losses” Homegrown – keeps me safe Because if you’d “suffered” from FOMOL instead of FOMO in 2019 when “plant-based” was the “next megatrend” and Beyond Meat’s $300m of revenue was apparently worth a “Beyond ridiculous” $14bn … Read on

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