“Action cures fear”

is my favourite quote from, The Magic of Thinking Big, by David J Schwartz

and when I look at the CNN Fear and Greed Index, I see Fear

but when I speak to investors and advisors, there’s no Action

Most are paralysed by Fear

Either their own

or their clients’

or a combination

“How am I going to explain Q3’s performance to my clients?

They’ve got huge exposure to Fund ABC which is down 15% in GBP”

Well, if that strikes a chord, know you aren’t alone

and also know that it’s only -15% because the GBP has been so weak

In USD terms, that fund is down 28% !

Do you remember the bear market rally off the low from Jun to August?

The one everyone hoped was the start of a new bull market
arriving in time to save us and our clients from the pain of loss?

You do?

Well, I’m afraid it’s over

and for my money, it’s a matter of time before the S&P 500 takes out the June lows

Is that when you’re going to act?

Are you going to be one of those who capitulate when everyone else does?

Because the capitulation hasn’t even started

How do I know?

Because according to Bloomberg data I look at, ETF flows into equity funds are still positive YTD

and are basically flat over the past month

As I said, everyone is paralysed by Fear – are you?

But Warren Buffett told me, “I need to be greedy when others are fearful”

And the CNN index shows, “Fear”, so it’s time to be greedy

Good idea, but WHAT are you buying?

Because if it’s large cap, US tech, or funds that are full of that stuff (like most)

Good luck

They hate a strong dollar more than anyone

50%+ of their business is outside the US

And do you remember the currency headwinds they all moaned about last quarter?

Well, they’re even worse this quarter

For them to show ANY growth from international divisions,

European sales will need to be up more than 14%

and make that +20% for any Japanese sales

How likely do you think that is with a war raging?

And if spot currencies hold, next quarter is going to be even tougher

Remember head office costs are in USD so operating leverage will be negative,

so please don’t bet on any upbeat guidance

“Well, I’m a long-term investor”

Yes, so they all say until the paw-paw hits the fan..

Ok, so how do I protect myself?

There is some fantastic Value out there, so I do think you want to be invested – we’re fully invested with more ideas than cash right now

But don’t be invested where everyone else is

because when there’s a stampede, you’re going to get trampled.

When I’m really undecided, I sell half my position

If that’s subsequently the right decision – phew, I’m glad I sold half!

If that’s the wrong decision – well I’m grateful I still have half

But at least I took