Thoughts

It’s what happens at the end that really matters.

I

Bernie Madoff has died in prison, remembered not as the “investor” who churned out a monthly +1% without fail, but as the world’s greatest fraudster “losing” investors $65bn. He lived a life of lies, turned in by his sons, one of whom died by suicide two years later. A tragic story on a personal & … Read on

You want Value, but Active or Passive?

Y

Consider this, JP Morgan (JPM) is the 2nd largest holding & #1 bank in the S&P500 Value index @ a 2.7% weighting. Goldman Sachs (GS) is 29th at 0.68%. It’s quarterly earnings time. JPM reported revenue growth of 14% & an ROE of 23%, flattered by credit loss provision reversals. Strip provisions out from both … Read on

The American Association of Individual Investors reported last week that, “Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market jumped to its highest level in more than three years.”

T

56.9% of respondents were bullish, a higher level has only occurred 4.7% of the time since 1990 (red line). But is there any predictive value in these readings? My scatterplot below shows the Bullish % & the subsequent 3-month returns of the S&P500 since Nov 1990 (source: AAII & Bloomberg). Over the entire period, positive … Read on

No shortage of potential puns over today’s 24% plunge in Deliveroo’s share price – “The wheels came off”, “Failed to Deliveroo”, “Investors taken for a ride”

N

For those who ploughed £1.5bn into the company today, it’s less amusing. I fail to see the merits of waiting an hour for a delivered pizza costing £12 – £16, when one from Waitrose costs £3 or I bake my own for a few pence. But ignore my biases, here’s what I found troubling from … Read on

Do I really need to worry about Gamestop?

D

Yes, because it’s causing an accident. Using the latest data, Gamestop has $22bn of short exposure, double Microsoft/ Amazon and 2nd only to Tesla’s $45bn. Yet Gamestop has a market cap of $23bn which was only $1.2bn on 12th Jan. So the shorts are down roughly $20bn + a few $bn on the other financially … Read on

It’s Dec 2020 & your advisor says they’ve found the perfect fund – a top performer in recent years, up 47% to Nov & run by a Steve Cohen protege

I

“Sounds amazing, I’m in and while you’re at it, get rid of all my other stragglers – let’s have some conviction.” Yesterday, I suspect investors almost lost every single Dollar. Here’s why, On Jan 22, the WSJ reported the $12.5bn fund down 15% in 3 weeks, due in part to a short squeeze in GameStop, … Read on

Bitcoin – I read the annual report (10K) of the $28bn Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC US) and found the disclosures frightening:

B

The Trust is not registered as an investment company under the Investment Company Act The Sponsor has the exclusive management, authority & control of all aspects of the activities of the Trust. Yet The Sponsor is neither:– An investment adviser registered with the SEC, nor– A commodity pool operator registered with the CFTC And takes … Read on